Nigeria’s upcoming Off-Cycle Elections will hold in 3 states in a few days, precisely November 11. However, at the backdrop of this crucial events are riddles, questions and predictions.
Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi – are gearing up for crucial state elections that will determine their next governors.
While these states might not be at the forefront of discussions on Nigerian politics, the upcoming elections carry significant implications, particularly in the wake of a divisive national election in 2023.
The brink boat
The recently concluded general elections in 2023 were marked by a lack of genuine issue-based campaigning. Instead, most political parties and politicians relied on identity politics to address the growing apathy among citizens due to past unfulfilled promises.
Topics such as the economy, foreign policy, and national security solutions often took a back seat during the campaigns.
Interestingly, President Bola Tinubu’s refusal to participate in a debate with other prominent frontrunners continued a trend where presidential election victors avoided debates.
The lack of these discussions left many issues unaddressed.
The Local Context
Nigerian politics frequently emphasizes the power of the ruling party and the president’s base, this influences politics at the local levels.
Additionally, there is growing awareness of the skewed appointments made by previous governments and the marginalization of certain regions.
In the face of pragmatic politics, Nigerian political parties seemed to abandon the convention of alternating power between different regions and religions. However, the dynamics at play in a national election significantly differ from those in a state election, despite sharing a somewhat homogenous population.
The dynamics ahead
Notably, Bayelsa and Imo will witness incumbent governors seeking re-election, even though they were not initially declared winners in the previous elections. In Bayelsa, Duoye Diri was sworn in as governor after the original winner, David Lyon, was disqualified due to issues with his running mate’s qualifications. In Imo, Hope Uzodinma was inaugurated almost a year after the election results when the Supreme Court factored in nullified votes.
These elections offer a chance to evaluate the performance of these incumbents, especially as the initially declared winners are not contesting this time around.
Kogi’s election will primarily review Yahaya Bello’s two-term tenure in office, particularly since his handpicked successor secured the party’s nomination.
Franchise riddles
These state elections are far from straightforward.
While Bayelsa and Kogi effectively delivered their states for their party’s presidential nominees, Imo was won by a candidate from the Labour Party. This has sparked anticipation of a stronger showing by the Labour Party and the possibility of an upset in Imo.
It’s nontheless important to note that Imo witnessed the highest number of attacks on INEC facilities in the run-up to the 2023 general elections, raising concerns about election security. Bayelsa also faces a contentious clash between the incumbent governor and one of his predecessors who seeks to return to power. The Appeal Court’s recent ruling allows Timipre Sylva of the APC to contest the election, and his running mate, Joshua Maciver, has faced criticism for alleged involvement in election-related violence.
In Kogi, one of the major opposition candidates is Dino Melaye, a former senator and an active member of his party. Although the incumbent parties hold strong positions, they face formidable coalitions that could impact their chances if underestimated.
Other factors
Apart from the political complexities, several key factors will play a pivotal role in shaping the outcomes of these elections:
1. INEC’s Capacity: The ability of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to successfully implement electronic result transmission will be closely scrutinized after glitches marred the 2023 presidential election results.
2. Logistics: Delivering voting materials to various regions, including Bayelsa’s challenging terrain and Kogi’s vast landmass, will be a logistical challenge.
3. Voter Turnout: Voter turnout has decreased nationally, with particular drops in Bayelsa, Kogi, and Imo between the 2023 presidential and 2019 elections.
4. Public Sentiment: After over four months under a new president, public sentiment will reflect policies such as the removal of fuel subsidies, currency devaluation, and perceived sectional appointments and financial allotments.
5. The Unknown Factors: These elections will be influenced by several unknown variables, including senatorial zones feeling marginalized, neighboring state influences, and the mood of the country.
Ultimately, the results will contribute to the political legacy of the nation, particularly for the younger generation. The significance of these elections cannot be underestimated, as they will impact the direction of the country’s political landscape for better or worse.
Nigerians must watch intently as the activities ahead promises to be action-packed at least by expostulations.
Culled in by Fortune Omosola
