A new scientific report has delivered a sobering reality check: Africa may cross the critical 1.5°C global warming threshold within just 15 years, even under the world’s most optimistic emission-reduction scenarios.
Oops!
Published in the CABI Digital Library, the study by scientists from the University of Zimbabwe and Kenya’s International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) paints a troubling picture for Africa’s future, one in which climate-induced disruptions intensify food insecurity, widen social inequalities, and threaten the continent’s sustainable development aspirations.
Despite contributing less than 4% to global greenhouse gas emissions, Africa is expected to suffer disproportionately from rising temperatures, with all five of its subregions—North, West, Central, East, and Southern Africa—projected to breach the 1.5°C mark by 2040.
“This is more than a climate statistic. It’s a red flag for African livelihoods,” said Professor Paul Mapfumo, the lead author of the study.
He warned that the continent’s heavy dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture, coupled with limited adaptive capacity, could result in widespread ecological and socio-economic fallout.
The Paris Agreement set the 1.5°C threshold as a global target to prevent catastrophic climate outcomes. But this new data suggests that for Africa, that limit is not just a distant threat, it is an imminent reality.
Similarly, ILRI co-author and policy expert, Laura Cramer, stressed the importance of tailoring global climate models to African realities.
“We need to localise these findings. Vulnerable communities across Africa must be front and centre in climate adaptation strategies,” she said.
The report recommends a “just transition” framework—one that not only helps Africa adapt to climate stress but also transforms its agricultural systems into engines of resilience and low-carbon growth. The authors argue that investing in higher education, innovation, and inclusive policies will be essential for building climate-resilient economies.
“This isn’t just about surviving climate change—it’s about rethinking development entirely,” Professor Mapfumo said.
The study also calls for a reformed approach to international climate finance—one that acknowledges Africa’s unique vulnerabilities while supporting homegrown solutions. By equipping the continent’s youth with climate knowledge and research tools, scientists believe Africa can chart a future that protects both its people and the planet.
