The Urgency of Climate Action is so yesterday.
A recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the catastrophic impact of human actions on the environment leaves no room for ambiguity:
“It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land.”
It is a stern warning and a fiesty story that tells of the disaster rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and why global citizens must have a rethink.
What does the future hold?
The year 2023 has provided a firsthand experience of the impacts that await us in the coming decades and centuries. Heatwaves, wildfires, torrential downpours, and devastating floods have become alarmingly frequent. In essence, the future painted by these events is grim.
Without immediate, substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, it’s highly likely that we will breach the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold set in the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
Even if we muster the will to curtail emissions, the rise in sea levels is virtually inevitable throughout this century and may extend for centuries beyond. Extreme weather events, a disquieting norm since 1950, will grow in frequency and severity as global temperatures continue to climb.
The message is crystal clear:
“We must take every conceivable measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions right now.”
The alternative is an Earth that’s hotter, besieged by increasingly extreme weather, and less habitable than the already-warmed world we know today.
Carbon emission is an armageddon
The Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii has been our watchful guardian, monitoring Earth’s atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels since the late 1950s. In 2022, it recorded a global average concentration of 417.06 parts per million (ppm). To put this in perspective, preindustrial levels stood at 278 ppm. In other words, humanity has traversed halfway toward doubling the concentration of CO2 compared to the period between 1750 and 1800.
The increase in CO2 concentrations follows a seasonal pattern, with the rate of rise influenced by human actions. During the early stages of the pandemic, emissions plummeted, causing a temporary slowdown in CO2 concentration growth.
However, as the world reopened, emissions surged once more in 2021. This pattern has since moderated, but the overall trend is troubling.
Predictions for the global average CO2 concentration in 2023 hover around 419.2 ppm, a level not witnessed in over 3 million years. At that time, sea levels were several meters higher, and even trees found their home at the South Pole.
The rat race we must oblige
In 2015, the Paris Agreement set the ambitious goal of limiting global warming to under 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, the latest IPCC report spells out the formidable challenge we face in achieving this target without immediate, drastic emission reductions.
The report outlines five different emission scenarios, from very high to very low. Alas, all scenarios project global temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees.
The only scenario forecasting less than 1.5 degrees of warming by the end of the 21st century is the very low emission scenario. Even this trajectory anticipates a temporary overshoot of 1.5 degrees between 2041 and 2060 before reverting to 1.4 degrees by century’s end. To achieve this scenario, the world must dramatically reduce emissions immediately.
The critical point at which we cross the 1.5-degree threshold could be closer than we imagine.
The World Meteorological Association states a 66% likelihood that annual average temperatures will surpass 1.5 degrees for at least one year between 2023 and 2027. In reality, this threshold has already been breached for shorter periods in recent years. July 2023, for instance, claimed the title of the hottest month ever recorded, with records broken on consecutive days.
Based on current emissions and policies, the world is on course for a daunting 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100.
Financial demands
Climate change’s core principle is straightforward: the more carbon dioxide and other warming gases we release into the atmosphere, the higher global temperatures will climb. From 1850 to 2021, humans unleashed roughly 2,500 gigatonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere, contributing to a 1.1-degree Celsius warming compared to preindustrial levels.
To maintain a 50-50 chance of staying below the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold, we can afford to release only an additional 250 gigatonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere. This includes emissions from the start of 2023. To put this in context, the emissions in 2022 alone reached 36.8 gigatonnes of CO2, and global annual emissions have yet to peak.
In simpler terms, we have surpassed our 1.5-degree budget; it’s not a question of if but when we breach the threshold.
Culled in by Fortune Omosola (Fortunedexcel@gmail.com)
