The fight to keep global warming under control may have already slipped through humanity’s fingers.
How?
A new analysis led by renowned climate scientist Professor James Hansen suggests that the world is now on an unstoppable trajectory toward surpassing the critical 2°C threshold, sooner than expected.
Hansen, whose warnings about climate change date back to his groundbreaking 1988 testimony before the U.S. Congress, argues that recent reductions in air pollution, particularly from shipping emissions, have inadvertently accelerated global heating. The impact of these pollution cuts, combined with a more intense climate response to fossil fuel emissions than previously estimated, paints a grim picture.
“The 2°C target is dead,” Hansen declared. “Global energy consumption is rising and will continue to rise, making it impossible to stay within that boundary.”
According to his team’s analysis, the world could hit the 2°C mark by 2045 unless drastic interventions such as solar geoengineering are deployed.
In 2015, nearly every country on Earth signed the Paris Agreement, vowing to keep temperature rise “well below” 2°C while striving to limit it to 1.5°C. Yet, with just 1.3°C of warming in recent years, the planet has already experienced devastating wildfires, hurricanes, and heatwaves. If 2°C becomes inevitable, scientists fear that extreme weather will intensify further, making vast regions of the world uninhabitable and pushing global ecosystems toward collapse.
Professor Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University called the findings “shocking,” noting that a reduction in pollutants often viewed as a positive step for public health, has unexpectedly revealed a more alarming climate trajectory.
“We now have a new baseline for where we are,” he said.
While Hansen’s conclusions are stark, not all climate experts fully agree. Dr. Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, acknowledged the study’s value but cautioned that the science remains uncertain. “Hansen’s team represents a worst-case scenario, but we cannot confidently say they are wrong,” he noted.
Hansen’s team estimated that the reduction in shipping emissions has increased the planet’s heat absorption by 0.5 watts per square meter, far higher than previous studies, which suggested figures between 0.07 and 0.15 watts. Their methodology relied on analyzing changes in ocean reflectivity, whereas other studies approached the issue from the ground up.
Despite these variations, one conclusion is clear: the climate is warming faster than expected, and the world is running out of time to act.
The 1.5°C Threshold Is Already Fading
The Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target, long considered a crucial line to prevent catastrophic climate breakdown, is now teetering on the edge. Data from the EU’s climate monitoring program, Copernicus, shows that the world has already breached this threshold over the past two years, albeit in short-term spikes rather than a sustained trend.
At 1.5°C, scientists warned of severe disruptions: melting glaciers, coral reef die-offs, and the breakdown of key ocean currents. But at 2°C, the consequences would be even more irreversible, threatening the survival of entire ecosystems, intensifying droughts and floods, and displacing millions.
“The goal to avoid exceeding 1.5°C is deader than a doornail,” Hausfather stated bluntly. “We are speeding past it, and that will continue until global emissions stop rising.”
The warnings from scientists come as 2024 is on track to be the hottest year ever recorded. Three of the five leading research groups monitoring global temperatures have already predicted that this year will surpass the 1.5°C mark for the first time. While a single year above this threshold does not mean the Paris Agreement is entirely broken, it signals an alarming trend.
Last year’s record-breaking temperatures, which shocked even climate experts, have left researchers questioning whether they have underestimated the speed of global heating. This uncertainty, combined with the fading influence of El Niño, has created a troubling reality: even without additional climate events boosting temperatures, the world remains dangerously hot.
Lets be brutally honest…
Hansen and his colleagues stress that realism is now more important than ever. “Failure to be honest about the situation is not helpful to young people,” they stated in their report. Sugarcoating the truth, they argue, only delays the action needed to mitigate the worst effects of climate change.
Remember, Climate Change talks is up next in Azerbaijan!
