El Niño, Rising Temperatures: Why Nigerians Are Struggling to Escape the Heat

Nigerians are grappling with intense heat across the country, with many describing the conditions as unbearable amid erratic electricity supply, water shortages and rising fuel costs that make cooling down increasingly difficult.

The extreme temperatures have sparked widespread conversations about El Niño, a climate phenomenon that has gained public attention as Nigerians seek answers to the scorching conditions and forecasts of further heat in the coming months.

For many households, the heat has become more than a weather concern. Frequent power outages limit the use of fans and air conditioners, while the cost of petrol makes alternative electricity sources expensive. Water scarcity has added to the discomfort, leaving residents struggling to stay cool and hydrated.

Although El Niño has been the subject of weather alerts for some time, the term has recently become more prominent in public discussions, partly because of concerns about its potential effects on global temperatures and heat-related deaths.

One report projected that El Niño could contribute to 451,000 deaths linked to extreme heat globally during the first nine months of the phenomenon, from June to February, including an estimated 41,300 deaths in Nigeria. Such projections are estimates rather than confirmed death tolls, and their implications depend on the assumptions and methods used in the underlying research.

What exactly is El Niño?

El Niño is Spanish for “the little boy”. The name developed from the expression El Niño de Navidad, meaning “the Christ Child”, after fishermen off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador observed unusually warm ocean waters around Christmas.

Meteorologists later adopted the term to describe a recurring climate phenomenon involving warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

Its counterpart, La Niña, meaning “the little girl”, is associated with cooler-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the same region.

Both phenomena are phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate pattern involving changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation that can influence weather conditions across the world.

ENSO has three phases: El Niño, characterised by warmer ocean temperatures; La Niña, associated with cooler temperatures; and the neutral phase, when neither phenomenon is present.

Although ENSO originates in the Pacific, its effects can extend far beyond the region, influencing rainfall, drought, flooding and temperature patterns in different parts of the world.

Understanding El Niño requires some knowledge of trade winds, the prevailing winds that blow across tropical regions and play an important role in the movement of warm ocean water.

Under normal conditions, trade winds push warm surface water towards the western Pacific, allowing cooler water from deeper in the ocean to rise in the eastern Pacific.

During El Niño, these winds weaken, reducing the usual movement of warm water towards the western Pacific. This allows sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific to rise above normal levels.

The resulting changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation can disrupt established weather patterns around the world.

However, El Niño does not produce the same effects everywhere. Its influence varies by region, season and the strength of the event. Local weather conditions and long-term global warming can also contribute to unusually high temperatures.

Consequently, while El Niño can influence weather patterns, it should not automatically be regarded as the sole cause of Nigeria’s current heat.

Amid concerns about rising temperatures, a former chairman of the Nigerian Medical Association in Kaduna State, Dr Sheyin Madaki, has urged Nigerians to take precautions against heat-related illnesses.

Madaki gave the advice in an interview following projections of unusually high temperatures in Nigeria between now and February 2027.

He warned that prolonged exposure to extreme heat could increase cases of dehydration, heat exhaustion and heatstroke, with children and older people particularly vulnerable.

Dehydration occurs when the body loses more fluid than it takes in, while heat exhaustion develops when the body struggles to cope with excessive heat. Heatstroke is a more serious condition that can become life-threatening and requires urgent medical attention.

Madaki advised Nigerians to drink water regularly, avoid spending long periods under direct sunlight and take measures to reduce their exposure to high temperatures.

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), in an advisory issued on October 23, also warned of hotter days and increased heat discomfort as the country moves further into the dry season.

According to the agency, changing weather conditions, including reduced rainfall and cloud cover, could contribute to rising temperatures in parts of the country.

NiMet cautioned that excessive heat could result in dehydration, heat exhaustion and heatstroke, urging residents to take steps to protect themselves.

It recommended drinking water regularly and wearing lightweight, breathable clothing to help the body regulate its temperature.

The agency also advised Nigerians to limit prolonged exposure to direct sunlight, particularly during the hottest periods of the day, and to schedule strenuous physical activities for cooler hours.

Schools and workplaces were urged to maintain adequate ventilation, provide drinking water and shaded rest areas, and allow regular breaks for people working in hot conditions.

These measures are particularly important for outdoor workers, traders, construction workers, farmers and transport operators who may have limited opportunities to escape the sun during the day.

The World Health Organisation similarly advises people to avoid strenuous physical activity during the hottest parts of the day, remain in shaded or cool environments and take steps to keep indoor spaces as cool as possible.

Where air conditioning is unavailable, improved ventilation, reducing direct sunlight through windows and spending time in cooler public spaces can help people manage high temperatures.

People should also watch for symptoms of heat-related illness, including dizziness, headaches, unusual weakness, nausea and excessive sweating. Confusion, seizures or loss of consciousness may indicate heatstroke and require immediate emergency assistance.

As temperatures rise, access to reliable electricity and clean water becomes increasingly important to public health. For households already dealing with power cuts and the high cost of alternative energy, following heat-safety advice may be more difficult.

While the science behind El Niño may appear unfamiliar to many Nigerians, the immediate challenge is clear: protecting people from dangerous heat requires timely weather information, public awareness and practical measures that enable households, schools and workplaces to stay cool and hydrated.