In a few years, it could be easier to live in Mars than on Earth.
The devastating effects of extreme rainfall and floods in North America, East Africa and parts of the Arabian Peninsula have resulted in numerous casualties and significant economic and agricultural damage. Additionally, intense heatwaves have affected large areas of Asia, disrupting daily activities and posing serious health risks.
The Deadly Impact Of New Climatic Conditions
The recent high-impact weather events in the second half of April serve as a stark reminder of society’s vulnerability to weather, water, and climate-related hazards. This spotlights the urgent need for effective Early Warning Systems (EWS) to mitigate such risks and protect communities.
What Are Early Warning Signs
The early warning systems initiative aims to ensure global protection from hazardous weather, water, or climate events by the end of 2027. With human-induced climate change exacerbating extreme weather, these systems are critical for saving lives and reducing economic losses. They provide cost-effective tools for warning people of storms, floods, or droughts, offering a significant return on investment.
While these systems have already reduced fatalities and damages, significant gaps remain, particularly in small island developing states and least developed countries.
What Experts Are Saying
During the 80th session of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific on April 23rd, WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett says:
“Climate change is worsening the frequency and intensity of these events, significantly affecting societies, economies, and, crucially, human lives and our environment.”
According to her, extreme heat is increasingly becoming the significant silent threat.
She added, “Heat-related fatalities are often underreported, masking the true extent of premature deaths and economic burdens, including decreased labor productivity, agricultural losses, and strain on the power grid.”
Regarding heat in Asia, the latest Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted that “heat extremes have risen while cold extremes have declined, a trend expected to persist in the coming decades.”
Furthermore, a World Weather Attribution study from last year concluded that:
“Extreme humid heat experienced in South Asia in April 2023 was primarily attributed to climate change, posing risks to vulnerable and marginalized communities.”
The Danger Signs Of EL-Nino
According to the Indian Meteorological Department, the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves are on the rise, attributed to global warming.
Over the past 30 years, the total duration of heatwaves in India has increased by approximately 3 days. IPCC model projections suggest a further increase in both the frequency and duration of heatwaves by 2060.
India has been proactive in implementing integrated heat-health forecast action plans and #BeatTheHeat campaigns, offering practical advice and information.
However, vulnerable populations, such as outdoor workers and those residing in densely populated informal settlements, remain exposed.
Countries like Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Thailand are also affected, leading to school closures and disruptions in economic and agricultural activities.
WMO Regional Director for Asia and the Southwest Pacific,Ben Churchill, points out that while April is typically hot in South Asia and Southeast Asia, the combined effects of El Niño and climate change are driving temperatures to dangerously high levels.
The Severity Of These Conditions In Africa
Heavy seasonal rainfall has brought devastation to the East African region, with El Niño potentially playing a role.
A climate expert with WMO,Alvaro Silva, suggests that the current positive Indian Ocean Dipole, influenced by record warm ocean temperatures in the northwest Indian Ocean, may have contributed to the extreme rainfall, although other climate factors could also be involved.
Meanwhile, in the United Republic of Tanzania, Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa reported to Parliament that flash floods on April 25 claimed the lives of at least 155 people and left more than 230 injured. Neighboring Burundi also suffered casualties.
Earlier, the WMO Regional Climate Centre for the Great Horn of Africa, known as ICPAC, had predicted exceptional rainfall for the period of April 23-30 in various parts of the region, including northern and western Kenya, central and southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia and Djibouti, and northern and southern Uganda. It warned of flooding in flood-prone areas.
In Kenya, the Kianamu weather station, located northeast of Nairobi, recorded approximately 120 mm of rain on April 24.
The Kenya Meteorological Department issued warnings for heavy rainfall continuing at least until April 28 in many regions, including the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley, Southeast Lowlands, coast, and northern sector, expecting the continuation from April 25, 2024.
In southern Africa, the ongoing severe drought results from a very poor rainy season.
Massive Floods In The Emirates
The United Arab Emirates, known for its hot arid desert climate and minimal annual rainfall, experienced unprecedented flooding in mid-April, garnering global attention.
Several years’ worth of rainfall poured down in just a few hours, leading to the closure of Dubai International Airport and the transformation of highways into raging torrents.
On April 16, 2024, the National Center of Meteorology announced that the UAE had witnessed the highest rainfall in 75 years. The “Khatm al-Shakla” area in Al Ain recorded 254.8 mm of precipitation in less than 24 hours, marking an exceptional event in the country’s climatic history.
In Dubai, the average annual precipitation from 1991 to 2020 was approximately 80 mm, slightly higher in eastern areas at around 120-140 mm.
The slow-moving storm system also severely affected Oman on April 14-15, triggering flash floods and reportedly claiming 17 lives.
A rapid assessment conducted by scientists at World Weather Attribution yielded mixed conclusions regarding the flooding. While the disparity between model results and observations precludes a definitive link to human-induced climate change as the primary driver, the observed trend towards heavier rainfall in a warmer climate remains unexplained by alternative factors.
A Quick Look At What Must Be Done
Addressing extreme weather events like the ones described requires a multi-faceted approach:
1. Early Warning Systems (EWS): Strengthen and expand EWS to provide timely alerts and information to communities at risk.
2. Infrastructure Resilience: Invest in infrastructure that can withstand extreme weather, such as improved drainage systems and reinforced buildings.
3. Community Preparedness: Educate and empower communities to prepare for and respond to extreme weather events, including evacuation plans and emergency supplies.
4. Climate Adaptation: Implement climate adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change, such as water management strategies and sustainable agriculture practices.
5. International Cooperation: Foster international collaboration to share knowledge, resources, and best practices in mitigating and adapting to extreme weather events.
6. Research and Innovation: Support research and innovation efforts to better understand the drivers of extreme weather and develop new technologies and strategies for resilience.
By taking proactive measures across these areas, we can better prepare for and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events on communities and infrastructure.
In the face of human-induced climate change, which is causing increasingly severe weather patterns, the importance of early warning systems has become paramount.
These systems serve as essential tools in alerting communities to impending storms, floods, or droughts. Contrary to being perceived as a luxury, they are indispensable assets that not only save lives but also mitigate economic losses. Research indicates that early warning systems yield significant returns on investment, with estimates suggesting a nearly tenfold return. Therefore, their implementation and enhancement are crucial in safeguarding lives and livelihoods amidst the changing climate landscape.
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