One Year On: Evaluating President Bola Tinubu’s Impact on Nigeria

As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marks his first year in office, the nation reflects on a tumultuous journey that has seen a series of bold policies and significant economic shifts.

Sworn in as Nigeria’s 16th president on May 29, 2023, Tinubu’s tenure has been characterized by dramatic changes that have left many Nigerians struggling to adapt.

A Year of Economic Turbulence

The International Center for Investigative Reporting ICIR has meticulously tracked Tinubu’s performance over the past year, revealing a landscape marked by escalating prices and economic hardship. Shortly after his inauguration, the president’s removal of fuel subsidies—an enduring legacy of previous administrations—sent shockwaves through the economy. Prices of food, transportation, and essential goods soared, leaving many Nigerians grappling with hunger and financial instability.

The ICIR weighed in with these data:

Inflation and Rising Costs

When Tinubu took office, Nigeria’s inflation rate stood at 22.41 percent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). However, each subsequent month saw a rise, culminating in an unprecedented 33.2 percent by April 2024—the highest since records from 2005 and 1996. Food inflation was particularly severe, jumping from 24.82 percent in May 2023 to 40.01 percent by March 2024.

Eating healthily became nearly impossible for the average Nigerian. The cost of maintaining a nutritious diet skyrocketed from N503 in May 2023 to N982 in March 2024—a staggering 95.23 percent increase. This price surge has significantly impacted the daily lives of ordinary Nigerians, pushing basic sustenance out of reach for many.

Transportation Woes

The removal of the petrol subsidy also led to a dramatic increase in transportation costs. The average cost of a motorcycle journey rose slightly from N464.55 to N472.16, but the cost of bus journeys saw a more pronounced hike. Within cities, bus fares increased by 46.2 percent from N649.59 to N969.32. Traveling between states became even more expensive, with prices rising by 78.7 percent from N4,002.16 to N7,152.97. Air travel was not spared, with ticket prices increasing by 18.7 percent from N74,948.78 to N88,964.86. Even water transport saw a rise from N1,045.15 to N1,384.32, a 32.5 percent increase.

Exchange Rate Volatility

The naira’s value also plummeted under Tinubu’s administration. Initially exchanged at N461 to 1 USD, the president’s abolition of the multiple exchange rate system saw the rate surge by 226.80 percent to N1,510/$1 by February 2024. Though it later stabilized somewhat to N1,215/$1 by April 2024, the impact on the economy was profound, rendering the naira increasingly worthless in the eyes of the global market.

Fuel and Energy Costs

Fuel prices experienced a dramatic increase over the year. The average price of a litre of petrol jumped by 192.63 percent from N238.11 to N696.79. Diesel prices rose by 58.85 percent from N844.28 to N1,341.16, and kerosene saw a 12.30 percent increase from N1,206.05 to N1,354.40. The cost of gas followed suit, with a 41.99 percent rise from N928.45 to N1,318.32 per kilogram.

Government Spending and Criticisms

In November 2023, Tinubu presented a N27.5 trillion budget to the National Assembly, which was increased to N28.7 trillion by January 2024. Despite the substantial budget, criticisms arose regarding frivolous expenditures, as highlighted by ICIR’s reports. Between June 2023 and February 2024, the Federal Allocation Account Committee (FAAC) approved N14.6 trillion for distribution among Nigeria’s three tiers of government.

Presidential Travels and Security Concerns

Tinubu’s first year also saw him visiting 13 countries, with repeated trips to Guinea Bissau and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, domestic security challenges persisted. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), 7,828 Nigerians were killed in various insecurity incidents from June 2023 to April 2024.

Public Sentiment and Political Opposition

Besides the data incursion of the ICIR, the Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) has equally been vocal in its criticism, accusing President Tinubu of exacerbating economic woes and weaponizing poverty through unfriendly policies. CUPP’s spokesperson, Mark Adebayo, decried the administration’s celebratory tone on its anniversary, calling it an affront to the suffering populace.

Similarly, the Conference of Speakers from Nigeria’s 36 State Houses of Assembly urged Tinubu to implement sustainable policies to alleviate the economic hardship, acknowledging the tough impacts of subsidy removal and exchange rate adjustments.

Looking Ahead

As President Tinubu begins his second year, the nation watches closely, hoping for measures that will stabilize the economy and improve living conditions. The past year has been marked by significant challenges, but with decisive and compassionate leadership, there is potential for recovery and growth. Only time will tell how these unfolding policies will shape Nigeria’s future.

Urgent Actions President Tinubu Must Take to Alleviate Nigeria’s Economic Challenges

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s first year in office has been marked by significant economic turbulence, characterized by soaring inflation, skyrocketing food and transportation costs, and a devalued naira. To address these pressing issues and improve the lives of Nigerians, the President must take swift and decisive actions. Here are key steps that could help ameliorate the situation:

Reintroduce Targeted Subsidies

While the removal of fuel subsidies was aimed at reducing fiscal burdens, its sudden elimination has had severe repercussions. President Tinubu could consider reintroducing targeted subsidies for essential items such as food and transportation. These subsidies should be carefully designed to benefit the most vulnerable populations without causing undue strain on the national budget.

Strengthen Social Safety Nets

Another objective is for this government to expand social safety nets that can provide immediate relief to those hit hardest by economic shocks. This includes increasing funding for programs like the National Social Investment Programme (NSIP), which provides direct support to low-income families, and enhancing unemployment benefits and food assistance programs.

Implementing Monetary Policy Reforms

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should also work towards stabilizing the naira by implementing policies that control inflation and reduce currency volatility. Measures such as tightening monetary policy, increasing interest rates, and controlling money supply can help curb inflation. Additionally, ensuring a transparent and unified exchange rate system can restore confidence in the naira.

Boost Agricultural Production

To tackle food inflation, the government must invest in agricultural development. This includes providing subsidies for farmers, improving access to modern farming equipment and technology, and developing infrastructure such as roads and storage facilities. Encouraging local production can reduce dependency on imports and lower food prices.

Improve Power Supply

The power sector is a makeshift cesspool that can annihilated with the right political will. Improving the electricity supply is crucial for economic stability. Investing in renewable energy sources, upgrading the national grid, and encouraging private sector participation can enhance power generation and distribution. Reliable electricity will reduce production costs and improve the business environment.

Promote Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)

It is crucial at this junture to support SMEs for rapid economic growth and job creation. The government should do more in providing financial incentives, such as low-interest loans and grants, to help SMEs thrive. Additionally, simplifying business registration processes and reducing bureaucratic hurdles can encourage entrepreneurship.

Invest in Healthcare

Making healthcare affordable and accessible is essential. Increasing the healthcare budget, improving infrastructure, and ensuring the availability of essential medicines can significantly improve public health. Introducing policies that provide health insurance for low-income families can also alleviate the financial burden of medical expenses.

Encourage Foreign Investment

Creating a favorable environment for foreign investment can stimulate economic growth. This involves ensuring political stability, enforcing the rule of law, and providing tax incentives for foreign investors. Strengthening bilateral trade agreements and showcasing Nigeria’s potential can attract much-needed foreign capital.

Strengthen Anti-Corruption Measures

Corruption remains a significant barrier to economic development. President Tinubu should reinforce anti-corruption agencies, ensure transparency in government dealings, and implement strict penalties for corrupt practices. Building a culture of accountability can improve investor confidence and ensure that resources are used effectively.

Enhance Education and Skills Training

Investing in education and vocational training can prepare the workforce for the demands of the modern economy. Expanding access to quality education and providing skills training programs can reduce unemployment and foster innovation. Partnering with the private sector to tailor training programs to market needs can also improve employment prospects.

Improve Public Transportation

Vamping public transportation infrastructure can reduce travel costs and improve mobility. Investing in mass transit systems such as buses and trains, as well as improving road networks, can make transportation more affordable and efficient.

Make Governance Inclusive 

Engaging with diverse stakeholders, including opposition parties, civil society, and local communities, can foster inclusive governance. Establishing regular dialogue and involving these groups in decision-making processes can ensure that policies are well-rounded and address the needs of all Nigerians.

President Tinubu can address the immediate economic challenges by taking these steps; it would most likely set Nigeria on a path to sustainable growth and development. The journey may be arduous, but with decisive and compassionate leadership, the President can restore hope and improve the lives of millions of Nigerians.

The Reporter. ( Stock Data obtained from ICIR )