Storm Boris has wreaked havoc across central Europe, with scientists warning that climate change has significantly worsened the disaster.
The storm, which hit Poland, Austria, Italy, and other countries, resulted in at least 24 deaths and billions in damages. According to the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, one recent four-day rainfall period was the heaviest on record for the region, made twice as likely by global warming.
WWA scientists analyze how climate change amplifies extreme events by comparing current disasters with models of a world without nearly 200 years of fossil fuel burning. Their analysis of Storm Boris reveals that rainfall of this magnitude is still rare but could become much more common and intense if temperatures rise further.
At present, Europe is the fastest-warming continent, with average temperatures over the past five years approximately 2.3°C higher than in the 19th century. This warming has led to increasingly intense weather events, such as heatwaves and heavy rain, particularly in northern and central regions. The storm’s impacts, though devastating, were mitigated in part by improved forecasting, which helped some areas better prepare and potentially saved lives.
Experts warn that without urgent climate action, the frequency of such intense weather events will rise significantly. As temperatures continue to climb—potentially by 3°C by the end of the century—these storms could become 5% stronger and occur 50% more often. Friederike Otto, a senior climate scientist at Imperial College London, highlighted how such record-breaking storms clearly demonstrate the effects of climate change.
One of the simplest mechanisms for heavier rainfall is the atmosphere’s increased capacity to hold moisture as it warms. For every 1°C increase, the atmosphere can hold 7% more water, contributing to heavier rain. Southern Europe faces a more complex climate picture, with shifting weather patterns causing uncertainty. However, the overall trend shows Europe is rapidly experiencing the stark consequences of global warming.
This devastating storm offers a window into the future if immediate and substantial global climate measures are not taken.
