A new study has revealed that more Nigerians slipped into poverty following sweeping economic reforms introduced after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office, with rising inflation and high food prices sharply reducing household purchasing power.
The research, presented at a policy dialogue organised by Agora Policy in Abuja, found that about 63 per cent of Nigerians fell below the poverty line after the removal of petrol subsidy.
The dialogue, themed “Sustaining and Deepening Economic Reforms in Nigeria,” brought together policymakers, economists, civil society groups and private sector leaders to assess the social and economic effects of the government’s reform agenda.
Presenting the findings, Mohammed Shuaibu, a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Economics at University of Abuja, explained that the study examined how recent policy changes have affected household welfare across the country.
According to him, the research showed that Nigeria’s poverty headcount rose sharply from a baseline of about 49.8 per cent to roughly 63 per cent after the government removed fuel subsidy in 2023.
President Tinubu had announced the end of petrol subsidy during his inaugural address on May 29, 2023, a decision aimed at reducing fiscal pressure and redirecting resources toward development priorities.
However, the study noted that the policy triggered widespread increases in the prices of goods and services across the economy, placing significant pressure on household incomes, especially in urban areas.
“After the subsidy removal, poverty increased from a baseline of about 50 per cent to 63 per cent,” Shuaibu said, adding that the policy change contributed to higher living costs nationwide.
The researcher noted that the government later introduced social protection programmes, including cash transfers, to cushion the impact of the reforms on vulnerable households.
“These interventions helped moderate the situation, bringing the poverty rate down slightly to around 56.2 per cent,” he explained, though the figure remains significantly higher than the baseline level recorded before the reforms.
The event drew participation from several key stakeholders in Nigeria’s economic policy landscape. Among them were Muhammad Abdullahi, Deputy Governor for Economic Policy at the Central Bank of Nigeria; Sanyade Okoli, Special Adviser to the President on Finance and Economy; Samer Matta, Senior Economist for Nigeria at the World Bank; Hussaini Abdu, Country Director of CARE International; and Waziri Adio, Executive Director of Agora Policy.
Participants at the dialogue emphasised the need for sustained economic reforms but also called for stronger social safety nets to protect vulnerable Nigerians from the immediate hardships associated with policy changes.
