Micheal Froman writes…
2024 brought a cascade of seismic geopolitical events that will shape the year 2025. From Sweden’s historic decision to join NATO to Donald Trump’s return to the White House, and from Israeli strikes deep in Iran to the impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, the global stage seems more dynamic—and fragile—than ever. Add to this, the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the hottest year on record in 2024, and the geopolitical temperature is unmistakably rising.
As of today, the Middle East stands out as a critical fault line. Syria, emerging from Assad’s downfall, faces an existential question: can it unify disparate opposition groups, or will it slide further into instability, this time under Islamist control?
This fragile balance carries immense consequences for its neighbors—Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel—all of whom will feel the ripple effects of Syria’s trajectory.
Iran’s nuclear ambitions could also define the year. With its proxies weakened, missile systems degraded, and air defenses decimated by Israeli strikes, Tehran faces a stark choice: negotiate with the West to stave off sanctions or take bolder steps toward nuclear armament as the ultimate deterrent. For Israel, emboldened by recent victories and defiance of international calls to de-escalate, 2025 might be the year to act decisively against Iran’s nuclear program, potentially igniting a larger regional conflict.
Further east, Ukraine’s war with Russia shows no signs of resolution. Trump has promised to broker peace, but the chasm between Ukrainian and Russian visions of a settlement remains vast. Recent assassinations and threats from both sides signal an escalation rather than a de-escalation. Meanwhile, Russia’s economy faces a slowdown, indicating that its wartime boom may be nearing its end.
China’s role in this equation adds another layer of complexity. While Beijing has supported Moscow with vital military technology, cracks could emerge in their “no limits” partnership as they navigate their individual relationships with the Trump administration. Closer to home, China remains laser-focused on Taiwan, as demonstrated by recent large-scale maritime drills designed to intimidate the island and its allies.
The return of Trump introduces fresh uncertainty. While he has vowed to sharpen U.S. competition with China, his rhetoric toward Taiwan has been less reassuring. Unlike President Biden’s more overt commitment to defending the island, Trump’s focus on trade tariffs leaves Taiwan in a precarious position.
Africa, too, is grappling with crises that demand global attention. The civil war in Sudan continues to worsen as external powers fuel the conflict, while tensions simmer between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s persistent insurgency and pivotal elections in Côte d’Ivoire, Tanzania, and Cameroon could reshape the continent’s political landscape.
In Latin America, the deepening humanitarian crisis in Venezuela looms large. Nicolás Maduro’s grip on power, despite contested elections, is expected to trigger another wave of migration, exacerbating pressures on neighboring nations already hosting millions of displaced people.
Amid these geopolitical challenges, the U.S. faces its own economic uncertainties. Trump’s potential clashes with the Federal Reserve, tariff strategies, and ballooning deficits all pose risks to market stability. Business leaders, while optimistic about technological advancements and deregulation, have expressed concerns about immigration policies that could shrink the labor force and geopolitical tensions that could disrupt trade.
Yet, amid these challenges, the U.S. remains a beacon of technological innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence. The balance between fostering AI innovation and ensuring its responsible use will be a critical challenge for the incoming administration.
If history teaches us anything, it is to expect the unexpected. The world of 2025 will undoubtedly bring surprises—some promising, others perilous. In navigating this uncertain future, nations and leaders must prepare for shifts that could redefine the global order.
Michael Froman is president of The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and previously served as U.S. Trade Representative and Deputy National Security Advisor.
